External validation of triage tools for adults with suspected COVID-19 in a middle-income setting: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tools proposed to triage ED acuity in suspected COVID-19 were derived and validated in higher income settings during early waves of the pandemic. We estimated the accuracy of seven risk-stratification tools recommended to predict severe illness in the Western Cape, South Africa. METHODS: An observational cohort study using routinely collected data from EDs across the Western Cape, from 27 August 2020 to 11 March 2022, was conducted to assess the performance of the PRIEST (Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage) tool, NEWS2 (National Early Warning Score, version 2), TEWS (Triage Early Warning Score), the WHO algorithm, CRB-65, Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and PMEWS (Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score) in suspected COVID-19. The primary outcome was intubation or non-invasive ventilation, death or intensive care unit admission at 30 days. RESULTS: Of the 446 084 patients, 15 397 (3.45%, 95% CI 34% to 35.1%) experienced the primary outcome. Clinical decision-making for inpatient admission achieved a sensitivity of 0.77 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.78), specificity of 0.88 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.88) and the negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.99 to 0.99). NEWS2, PMEWS and PRIEST scores achieved good estimated discrimination (C-statistic 0.79 to 0.82) and identified patients at risk of adverse outcomes at recommended cut-offs with moderate sensitivity (>0.8) and specificity ranging from 0.41 to 0.64. Use of the tools at recommended thresholds would have more than doubled admissions, with only a 0.01% reduction in false negative triage. CONCLUSION: No risk score outperformed existing clinical decision-making in determining the need for inpatient admission based on prediction of the primary outcome in this setting. Use of the PRIEST score at a threshold of one point higher than the previously recommended best approximated existing clinical accuracy.

Essential Emergency and Critical Care: a consensus among global clinical experts.

BACKGROUND: Globally, critical illness results in millions of deaths every year. Although many of these deaths are potentially preventable, the basic, life-saving care of critically ill patients are often overlooked in health systems. Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC) has been devised as the care that should be provided to all critically ill patients in all hospitals in the world. EECC includes the effective care of low cost and low complexity for the identification and treatment of critically ill patients across all medical specialties. This study aimed to specify the content of EECC and additionally, given the surge of critical illness in the ongoing pandemic, the essential diagnosis-specific care for critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In a Delphi process, consensus (>90% agreement) was sought from a diverse panel of global clinical experts. The panel iteratively rated proposed treatments and actions based on previous guidelines and the WHO/ICRC's Basic Emergency Care. The output from the Delphi was adapted iteratively with specialist reviewers into a coherent and feasible package of clinical processes plus a list of hospital readiness requirements. RESULTS: The 269 experts in the Delphi panel had clinical experience in different acute medical specialties from 59 countries and from all resource settings. The agreed EECC package contains 40 clinical processes and 67 requirements, plus additions specific for COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The study has specified the content of care that should be provided to all critically ill patients. Implementing EECC could be an effective strategy for policy makers to reduce preventable deaths worldwide.

Potential solutions for screening, triage, and severity scoring of suspected COVID-19 positive patients in low-resource settings: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: Purposefully designed and validated screening, triage, and severity scoring tools are needed to reduce mortality of COVID-19 in low-resource settings (LRS). This review aimed to identify currently proposed and/or implemented methods of screening, triaging, and severity scoring of patients with suspected COVID-19 on initial presentation to the healthcare system and to evaluate the utility of these tools in LRS. DESIGN: A scoping review was conducted to identify studies describing acute screening, triage, and severity scoring of patients with suspected COVID-19 published between 12 December 2019 and 1 April 2021. Extracted information included clinical features, use of laboratory and imaging studies, and relevant tool validation data. PARTICIPANT: The initial search strategy yielded 15 232 articles; 124 met inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Most studies were from China (n=41, 33.1%) or the United States (n=23, 18.5%). In total, 57 screening, 23 triage, and 54 severity scoring tools were described. A total of 51 tools-31 screening, 5 triage, and 15 severity scoring-were identified as feasible for use in LRS. A total of 37 studies provided validation data: 4 prospective and 33 retrospective, with none from low-income and lower middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a number of screening, triage, and severity scoring tools implemented and proposed for patients with suspected COVID-19. No tools were specifically designed and validated in LRS. Tools specific to resource limited contexts is crucial to reducing mortality in the current pandemic.

Cost-effectiveness and return on investment of protecting health workers in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: To account for health consequences, we estimated mortality for HCWs and present a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model with Bayesian multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Data sources included inputs from the World Health Organization Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool and the Imperial College of London epidemiologic model. RESULTS: An investment of $9.6 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention would save 2,299,543 lives across LMICs, costing $59 USD per HCW case averted and $4,309 USD per HCW life saved. The societal ROI would be $755.3 billion USD, the equivalent of a 7,932% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. DISCUSSION: In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale procurement and distribution of PPE for LMICs is an essential strategy to prevent widespread HCW morbidity and mortality. It is cost-effective and yields a large downstream return on investment.